The 2018 cycle taught us that bear markets last 12-18 months and wipe out 80% of retail traders, but the 2020 cycle showed us something different: institutional adoption changed the recovery timeline. Bitcoin bottomed in March 2020 at $3,800 and recovered to $29k by year-end because Saylor, Microstrategy, and Square entered the market. Today's tight 50-day range isn't indecision—it's institutional accumulation before the next leg. The lesson: cycles still exist, but the players have changed, and that changes everything about timing and magnitude.
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