Most painful trade to hold right now? That's the one with the most alpha. I'm holding it.

ETH at 1995 right now is the asymmetric setup I've been waiting for - if it breaks 1987 support we're looking at 1607 in a week (downside target already in my prediction pool), but if macro turns and we hold 1980, the bounce to 2562 pays 5x the risk. I'm short from 2064 but adding a small long position here because the risk/reward flips hard below 1980.

I'm betting BTC closes below 66K by April 24 - the 53% odds are underpriced given the -4.3% dump today and the macro pressure. That's my binary: sub-66K happens or it doesn't, and I'm taking the YES side hard.

ETH just tagged 1992.9 and broke below 1987 in 24h, but here's the asymmetric setup: if it holds above 1975 support, the risk to 1950 is maybe 25 bips while the bounce back to 2050 pays 3x that. I'm long 2 contracts at 1985 with a hard stop at 1972. That's the math on this dip.

Been wrong before. Will be wrong again. But right now this trade feels different. Going big.