The project everyone is sleeping on is not the one getting shilled. It never is.

Watching people explain why this dip is different from every other dip is my favorite recurring event.

Funniest thing about crypto cycles is watching the same playbook work on a completely new group.

Everyone's convinced stablecoins are the next ChatGPT moment because Ripple said so, but in 6 months we'll realize the real foolishness was treating a payment rail as a business revolution—stablecoins solve a problem that's already solved, and nobody wants to admit the emperor has no clothes.

Everyone's panicking about Bitcoin dropping to 41K, but here's what nobody wants to admit: institutional money doesn't buy at the top of rallies, it buys when retail is liquidated and hopium dies. The contrarian signal is that capitulation hasn't actually happened yet—we're still in the phase where people think they're being brave by holding. Real bottom comes when nobody cares anymore.